29 June 2016

#Brexit: Why UK Could Be Doomed To Years Without Proper Access To World Trade

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Uh-oh. Phoenixman
By Kristen Hopewell, University of Edinburgh and Matias E. Margulis, University of Stirling

While most discussion since the Brexit vote has focused on how the UK will negotiate the terms of its new trading relationship with the EU, much less has been said about the rest of the world.

Brexiters have tended to believe that the UK could continue to enjoy the access to foreign markets that it currently receives through the EU’s trade agreements with over 50 countries; and that for other markets it would simply resume independent membership of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the body through which 162 states set the rules for world trade.
In fact, this is highly uncertain. It will require a long and complex process of negotiation, for which the UK is under-prepared and has little leverage.

25 June 2016

By Riding The Tiger Of Populism, The Conservatives May Have Destroyed The UK

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Go back inside and think about what you’ve done. Matt Dunham/PA
By Charles Lees, University of Bath

It’s a familiar clichĆ© that the Conservative Party is the most successful political party in the democratic world. Once called the natural party of government, it has been in power for most of the last 150 years and, for good or ill, has shaped modern Britain. The UK is a conservative country in all senses of the word.

But the past four decades have demonstrated that the modern Conservative Party can no longer be trusted in its role as the guardian of British institutions.

The revolutionary free-market zealotry of the Thatcherites and their successors not only put the social fabric of Britain under severe strain, but also undermined the credibility of the UK’s constitutional arrangements. Of the three pillars of High Toryism; church, state and monarchy, Britons only seem to still like the latter.

The decline in Tory respect for British institutions has also been on full display, not least in David Cameron’s willingness to risk the union’s survival twice – first in the Scottish Independence referendum, and then, probably fatally, in the EU membership referendum.

24 June 2016

#EURef: Britain Votes To Leave The EU, Here's What Happens Next

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Leave ahead. Anthony Devlin / PA Wire
By Gavin Barrett, University College Dublin

Britain looks on course to leave the EU. This is having an immediate effect on markets. It will have immediate political ramifications too. David Cameron will, fairly soon, need to decide if he can continue in his role as British prime minister.

Legally speaking, though, the process of actually leaving will take a lot longer. Britain will now enter a kind of phoney Brexit period. It is still a member of the EU. The referendum vote is not as such legally binding. It is advisory only – but if it is out it creates a political imperative for the UK government to arrange its exit of the EU.

23 June 2016

Sound And Furry In #EURef Twitter War

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Twitter/Lilian Edwards
By Yin Yin Lu, University of Oxford

Twitter was always going to be a major battleground in the EU referendum but the sheer number of hashtags being used in the debate has been surprising.

Both sides are linguistically inventive: for every pro-Leave hashtag, there’s a pro-Remain equivalent. Virtually all synonyms of “Remain” and “Leave” – from #britin and #britexit to #votin and #voteout – have been used. There’s even the somewhat clunky #brout and #brin, as well as whimsical phrases like #brexitandchill and #remainandgain.

Not all hashtags trend, of course. In fact, the vast majority don’t. To measure resonance, the content of tweets must be taken into consideration; it is not just a numbers game. Hashtags aren’t always used as a supportive device – a tweet that includes #GrassrootsOut, for example, might not necessarily endorse the movement.

To untangle the question of success, I have been gathering tweets containing 250 referendum-relevant hashtags since March 10. I’ve analysed the first three months of data from what has already become a collection of 10m tweets.

While Brexiters appear to be winning on Instagram, it’s the Remainers who seem to be running Twitter. The Brexiters are making a lot of noise – but that doesn’t necessarily amount to winning the war.


21 June 2016

UK: Stop The Nigel Farage Of Newspapers

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Dear friends in the UK, 

The day Jo Cox was murdered, the Daily Mail ran a shrill front page story about migrants, stoking fear and hate in the referendum campaign. The story was plain wrong -- but instead of remorsefully retracting it, the Mail just buried a tiny correction in the paper.

Our democracy relies on media that tells the truth, but the Mail’s anti-EU editor, Paul Dacre, has spun a steady stream of misinformation and fear, adding to a climate where rage and xenophobia flourish.This is not what one of Britain’s biggest newspapers should do on such a significant national decision.

But there’s a chance to stop it. Rumours abound that the Mail’s owner Lord Rothermere, who is pro-Europe, sees Dacre as a growing liability, and is considering replacing him. If tens of thousands of us call him out for what he is -- the Nigel Farage of newspapers -- it could catch on, trigger a broad push and help end this hate media. 

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